Stephen Hodgson

Archive for the ‘Elections’ Category

My congratulations go to Iain Bentley – the newly elected Conservative councillor for Birstall Watermead on Charnwood Borough Council. Iain was elected in yesterday’s local by-election.

The full results were as follows:

Iain Bentley, Conservatives – 674 votes (48 percent)
Hayley Winrow, Labour – 452 votes (32 percent)
John Oatley, BNP – 288 votes (20 percent)

Labour’s own polling suggested that Labour would poll ahead of the Conservatives with 30 percent of the vote against the Conservatives on 20 percent of the vote. I questioned the reliability of this polling at the time and, in the event, the Conservatives saw a slight improvement on 2007 performance in this ward (up from 47 percent of the vote to 48 percent of the vote).

Congratulations once again to Councillor Iain Bentley.

In a letter to the Leicester Mercury, the Labour candidate in the Birstall Watermead by election, Hayley Winrow, shares the results of recent Labour polling in the ward:

…I and my team had spoken to over 1,000 voters in Birstall already.

I’m pleased to say that nearly 300 of them told us they wanted to vote Labour.

Rather fewer would commit to the Tories and even fewer for the Lib-Dems.

It is difficult to believe this polling is accurate and, if it is accurate, the implications are worrying.

If we assume “rather fewer” means a third fewer votes and “even fewer” means a third fewer again then the numbers released by Hayley indicate the following result on 18 February:

BNP : 36 percent
Labour : 30 percent
Conservatives : 20 percent
Lib Dems : 14 percent

As I reported on Friday, the Lib Dem nomination for this by election is invalid so the election is actually a three-way contest between the Conservatives, Labour and the BNP. The outcome of the election may therefore be determined by the decision of Lib Dem voters in the area to transfer their votes to other parties.

However, door-to-door polling by political parties is at best only semi-reliable and it is possible that so far Labour have focused their door-knocking efforts in mainly Labour-voting streets, rather than a full cross-section of Birstall Watermead, which would skew the results.

In the May 2007 local elections, the Conservatives polled 47 percent of the vote in Birstall Watermead so it is difficult to imagine the Conservative vote share dropping to less than 30 percent now, especially when the Conservative Party’s national poll rating is hovering around 40 percent.

If Labour really is now polling strongly across Birstall Watermead it certainly begs the question why Labour failed to field a single candidate in this two-seat ward back in 2007.

In any case, the possibility of a BNP councillor being elected in Birstall Watermead should certainly motivate Conservative voters to come out and vote on 18 February and I wish Conservative candidate Iain Bentley the best of luck.

Nominations for candidates for the Birstall Watermead by election closed today and the returning officer has published the statement of persons nominated. The candidates are:

• * Iain Bentley – Conservatives
• * John Oatley – British National Party
• * Hayley Winrow – Labour

This was previously a Conservative seat following a two-way fight between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats at the borough elections in May 2007 and no other parties stood in Birstall Watermead last time round. The by election was triggered after the Conservative borough councillor for Birstall Watermead, Rick Astill, decided to stand down because of increased work and family commitments.

It was initially thought by some that Labour wouldn’t field a candidate in this by election but they have defied the critics by putting Hayley Winrow on the ballot paper. I first came across Hayley via Twitter many months ago when we had a discussion about MPs’ expenses. Hayley remains a prolific tweeter with the name Haylz_Lou.

The ballot paper therefore contains a couple of surprises:- (i) Labour have fielded a candidate and (ii) the Lib Dems don’t have a candidate because of a technicality. According to the statement of persons nominated the intended Lib Dem candidate George Collingswood has an invalid nomination because one of his ten nomination signatures is not someone registered to vote in Birstall Watermead.

This by election is already interesting and nominations only closed a few hours ago!

Two weeks ago prospective Conservative MP for Loughborough Nicky Morgan called for a series of public debates to be held between Parliamentary candidates in Loughborough in the run up to next year’s General Election. I think public debates are a great way of making candidates accessible to voters and, crucially, a practical and convenient opportunity for voters to compare candidates side-by-side and work out whether they trust those candidates. The Parliamentary expenses scandal has done so much damage to our system of government and people’s perceptions of politicians (Loughborough’s incumbent Labour MP Andy Reed did not escape the expenses controversy) and it is essential that voters get the opportunity to meet and quiz their candidates on the same platform.

I understand Andy Reed is yet to decide whether he will participate in public debates with the other candidates in Loughborough – a bit like how Gordon Brown dithered over the idea of televised leaders’ debates just a few months ago. However, Gordon Brown eventually agreed to take part in leaders’ debates and I hope that Andy Reed will eventually accept that public debates are a great way to engage with voters and agree to take part too.

Should Andy Reed agree to take part in public debates with Nicky Morgan and other candidates I hope he will take the debates seriously and not try to divert important debates about policy and issues to the sort of “personality politics” that turns off so much of the public. Sadly in the same week that we have seen Gordon Brown’s petty attacks against David Cameron on the basis of his background (rather than Conservative policies), we have evidence that Andy Reed will run a similar “class war” campaign in Loughborough.

Reed wrote on his blog this week:

The Tory Party and right wing media backlash over any slight suggestion that the Tories are a bunch of toffs shows a raw nerve has been struck.

…

Even the most sympathetic Tory to poverty I have met doesn’t understand what it like not just to have on (sic) money – but to have no support or hope of getting money from ‘mummy & daddy’.

…

A billion people on our planet go to bed hungry and now (sic) knowing if tomorrow will even bring food. Our lack of understanding for their plight is the same as the Tory Toffs looking down at most of us. Because of their background they just won’t be able to get it.

This sort of “class war” attack is pathetic but it gives a great deal of insight into the despicable tactics we can expect Labour MPs, desperately clinging to power, to resort to in the run up to polling day. If Andy Reed seriously thinks all Conservative politicians have money on-tap or endless support from “mummy and daddy” he is even more out of touch with reality than even I had imagined – and it makes me wonder how many Conservatives he’s actually met! And the idea that someone’s education or wealth determines their capacity for empathy is complete nonsense.

Come on, Andy – agree to public debates with Nicky Morgan and other candidates so we can see if this pathetic line of attack appeals to the voters of Loughborough! The public saw straight through this “Tory Toffs” attack in the Crewe and Nantwich by election and they will see through it again in Loughborough.

Today’s Times reports that Labour may be abandoning financial support for constituencies with a Labour majority of less than 3,000 votes. The Loughborough constituency, where prospective Conservative MP Nicky Morgan is campaigning to overturn a Labour majority of just 1,996 votes, falls squarely into this bracket.

According to the Times:

Labour’s cash-strapped party machine is quietly abandoning up to 60 vulnerable seats to divert resources to defend constituencies in its heartlands, according to MPs.

…

Plans for targeted mailshots in marginal seats have been scaled back dramatically because of a lack of resources. Some MPs say Labour’s HQ is refusing to help seats with majorities of less than 3,000 — about 60 — as it retrenches in the face of the Tory advance.

That the Labour Party has had financial problems in recent years is no secret but it won’t do much for the morale of Labour MPs and activists in marginal constituencies like Loughborough if Labour HQ withdraws financial support.

The Times goes on to explain:

In the past year the [Labour] party has “raised” £18 million compared with the Conservatives’ £25 million. However, £2 million was a loan converted to a donation and £15 million is in borrowing and credit facilities.

Conservatives across the country still have a lot of work to do to win in places like Loughborough but with committed candidates like Nicky Morgan (and a lack of support from even within their own parties for marginal Labour MPs), it’s little wonder that the bookies have Nicky Morgan as odds-on favourite to be the next MP for Loughborough (according to Ladbrokes: Nicky Morgan at 1/6, Labour at 7/2, 16/11/09).

People across the country overwhelmingly backed the Conservatives in the English local elections on 4 June and voters in Leicestershire were no exception. The Conservatives at County Hall in Leicestershire have increased their majority from seven to 17 after gaining seats from both Labour and the Lib Dems. This is an excellent result for the Conservatives and a well-deserved result for the successful Conservative administration. (Leicestershire County Council has just won Council of the Year 2009.)

However, closer to home in the Loughborough constituency, Labour have held on. Whilst the Conservatives gained from Labour in Shepshed, where hard-working Shepshed resident and borough councillor Christine Radford was elected, and gained in Loughborough South, where Charnwood Borough Council Cabinet member David Slater now becomes the county councillor, Labour retained Loughborough North, Loughborough North West and Loughborough East. This means of the four seats that Labour held onto at County Hall, three are in Loughborough.

This raises the question of what these results mean for Conservative prospective MP for Loughborough Nicky Morgan. The current Labour MP for Loughborough enjoys a majority of less than 2,000 votes and Loughborough is a key target seat for the Conservatives at the General Election. I’ve looked at the results across the eight electoral divisions that make up the Loughborough constituency in a pseudo-scientific manner and if 4 June’s results were repeated at a General Election the good news is that Nicky Morgan would be elected MP for Loughborough with a majority of just over 4,500 votes.

The results would be as follows:

Conservatives: 18,975
Labour: 14,380
Lib Dems: 8,746
BNP: 6,276
Others: 1,087

I hasten to add that I carried out only a rudimentary estimate. There are obviously lots of factors that cannot be taken into account in such an estimate, especially with how quickly things are happening right now in the increasingly unstable Brown Government.

The numbers look good for the Conservatives but Labour retained three county council seats in Loughborough and the Conservative majority in newly-won Loughborough South is only 25 votes so there is absolutely no room at all for complacency.

Having said all that, Nicky Morgan is definitely on track to be elected as the next MP for Loughborough. What a shame Gordon Brown doesn’t have the guts to do the honourable thing and call a General Election.